Sir Cotton:Book on ‘Madras Famine’ observed India can feed 10 times its then population

We don’t expect IIM Professor to be so pathetically ignorant of our present economic situation, it is not serious when Swami Ramdev or dubious economist Sanjeev Sabhlok or S. Gurumurthy all linked to BJP mislead us on present and past – India ranks 16th in per capita Industrial GDP and over 90% of our manufacturing consists of low grade or low value addition products. Unlike South America where people wore Gold – majority of Indians lived in mud houses, or thatched houses, cooked foods in earthen pots etc – very few super rich or upper cast and rulers could own gold.

Even on demographics we are misled – in year Zero Indian population was 100X of UK, in year 1000 it was 40X and in 1820 it reduced to just 10X when UK through its East India company gradually took control of India. For 1820 years our rulers exploited our people denied adequate food and in these 18 centuries population growth in Britain was Ten Times more than India. Even today 90% of our population can’t afford high protein nutritious foods. Between year Zero to 1950 India population share declined from 32% to 14.2% and have recovered to 17% presently.

Sir Cotton in 1875 book on ‘Madras Famine’ observed India can feed 10 times its then population if it diverts river waters to farm lands, we could have done this for 1000 years – we as of now divert just 20% of river waters for all uses.

Had we maintained 350m population from Independence we could have been a developed country – had 2-3 times more resources to grow every year.

Western countries are reducing birth rate to improve or maintain their living standards in view of high energy and resources costs but India continues to grow in population to expand slums of uneducated low skilled unemployed population around cities. Since 1947 Indian population has expanded 250% compared to just around 20% for UK and that too includes foreign immigrants.

It is very foolish of Professor R. Vaidyanathan to even imagine India shall quietly takeover Western Countries when we don’t produce even 1.5% of manufactured products, all low grade or based on foreign technology.

OECD study also points out in year 1700 Netherland and UK employed 33% and 22% of work force in Industries respectively when India even to this day employs less than 1% population in factory sector.

Indian Rupee has lost 50% in value in couple of years against US Dollar and Euro. For the present time India is losing against US and EU. Main reasons are failure of our Corporate to develop Oil & Gas fields, Export of Raw Materials than finished goods, corruption in developing 2,00,000 MW Hydro Power and waste of over 1000 BCM of River Waters, Pollution, 100% Black Economy to real economy, Zero in creating Intellectual Property, Enrichment of few families and widespread poverty, poor education standards, unemployment and everyday political sabotage.

It is true our Rulers in history were exporting Spices and Silk and imported Gold and Silver but it doesn’t mean India was land of gold and silver but definitely meant three things first India was growing non food crops for exports, second kept our farming people starving and three Gold and Silver regularly invited Invaders like Abdali who would take away all the precious goods – to eventually establish their own rule.

Fact is India never had industry in history manufacturing products on regular basis and developing technologies. Even cotton textile mills had British Partners, Machinery had British Managers and Engineers.

Bunch of 5000 invaders would plunder India and 50,000 East India Officials would rule India spread from Rangoon to Kandhar.

India was never united – there were 150 states in British Raj who were fighting among themselves all the time before East India Company controlled them to serve its commercial interests.

Columbus discovered America in 1498 well over 500 years ago not 200 years as given by IIMB professor.

It was atrocious to equate India and China in present day when China manufacturing is 11 times more than India and Indian manufacturing includes Sugar Mills, Vegetable Oil, Biscuits Companies.

Finally you may break your head when IIMB professor claims population ratio of Europe declining from 25% to 11% as great advantage. But still 34 OECD have almost 19% of world population and contribute 75% of world GDP.

I am getting heart attack – OECD countries have over 20X GDP compared to India. China shall soon join OECD leaving behind India in league poor countries.  

We may have been independent but are controlled from outside Politically, Technologically, Economically and Culturally. For example most of our films are shot in foreign countries.

For five decades I had witnessed how opposition parties sabotage every single GOI initiative.

Even people were denied Education for ages and presently taught little to make our young population to lead the world.

There are no short cuts – nation’s progress gradually in peace time – it is not like Alexandra conquered all countries between Rome and Lahore in few years.

India has to be Politically and Economically United, Manufacturing led growth by Inventors, Engineers and sustained Cooperated Effort over 20 years could take us to Developed Country Status.

We Need Unified Nation & High Tech High Growth Rates to be Developed Nation. 

Ravinder Singh*

INNOVATIVE TECHNONLOGIES AND PROJECTS

Y-77, Hauz Khas, NewDelhi-110016, India.

ANNEXURES

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_sector_composition

Nominal GDP sector composition, 2012 in millions of dollars

	Country	Nom. GDP	Agri.	Indus.	Serv.
0	World	71,277,366	4,205,365	21,739,597	45,332,405
1	USA	15,653,366	187,840	2,989,793	12,475,733
2	China	8,250,241	800,273	3,844,612	3,605,355
3	Japan	5,984,390	71,813	1,645,707	4,272,854
4	Germany	3,366,651	26,933	946,029	2,393,689
5	France	2,580,423	49,028	472,217	2,059,178
6	UK	2,433,779	17,036	513,527	1,903,215
7	Brazil	2,425,052	130,953	664,464	1,629,635
8	Italy	1,980,448	39,609	473,327	1,467,512
9	Russia	1,953,555	85,956	734,537	1,133,062
10	India	1,946,765	330,950	350,418	1,265,397
11	Canada	1,770,084	31,862	506,244	1,231,978
12	Australia	1,542,055	61,682	410,187	1,070,186
13	Spain	1,340,266	44,229	324,344	973,033
14	Mexico	1,162,891	43,027	397,709	722,155
15	SK	1,151,271	31,084	458,206	661,981
16	Indonesia	894,854	127,964	419,687	347,203
17	Turkey	783,064	69,693	220,041	493,330
18	Netherlands	770,224	21,566	185,624	563,804
19	S. Arabia	657,049	13,141	439,566	204,342
20	Switzerland	622,855	8,097	172,531	442,227
21	Sweden	538,237	9,688	144,786	383,763
22	Poland	513,821	17,470	172,644	323,707
23	Belgium	513,396	3,594	110,894	398,909
24	Norway	483,650	13,059	185,238	285,354
25	Iran	482,445	54,034	195,873	232,538
26	Taiwan	466,832	6,069	149,386	312,311
27	Argentina	447,644	44,764	137,427	265,005
28	Austria	419,243	6,289	123,677	289,278
29	SA	408,074	10,202	128,951	268,921
30	UAE	360,136	2,521	213,921	143,334
31	Thailand	345,649	45,971	117,521	182,157
32	Denmark	333,238	14,996	63,648	254,594
33	Colombia	328,422	29,230	124,800	174,392
34	Venezuela	315,841	14,845	110,229	190,768
35	Greece	303,065	10,001	54,249	239,118

As Europe goes down, we need to be prepared for consequences

By R Vaidyanathan 

March 4, 2013

http://prof-vaidyanathan.com

The European economic and social crisis is becoming worse with each passing day. One business channel asked me in 2008 how long it might take to recover and I responded saying 40 quarters — they never came back to interview.

But now I forecast it may never recover.

Sri Aurobindo said that India will rise on the ashes of western civilisation and it seems to be coming true. It is important to recognise that the dominance of the West has been there only for last 200 odd years.

According to Angus Maddison’s pioneering OECD study, India and China had nearly 50 per cent of global GDP as late as the 1820s. Hence India and China are not emerging or rising powers. They are retrieving their original position.

In 1990, the share of the G-7 in world GDP (on a purchasing power parity basis) was 51 per cent and that of emerging markets, 36 per cent. But in 2012, it is the reverse. So the dominant west is a myth.

Europe is facing three types of crisis – economic, demographic, civilisational and it is not in a position to come out of these. All three are not recent ones, they were developing over a period and have now culminated into a catastrophe.

The Debt to GDP ratio of most of Europe is at unsustainable levels with our own Britain having above 500 per cent — I say our own since we are going to have to help them run their country sooner than later.

There are three major constituents of debt — Government debt, corporate debt and household debt. Of the three, we find household debt has reached nearly 80 to 100 per cent of GDP in most of these countries. The reason is simple — unlike India, households in Europe and USA have forgotten one simple word — savings. They live on debt and are interned by debt.

The situation is made worse by the unemployment situation. Youth unemployment has reached 55 per cent in Spain and is hovering above 30 per cent in most of the other countries.

Youth in Europe is defined as being between the ages of 16 and 24, unlike in India where even a 43-year-old is a ‘youth icon’. The overall unemployment is at more than 25 per cent in most countries and it is creating social turmoil.

Along with this is the demographic crisis. The population of Europe during the First World War was nearly 25 per cent. Today it is around 11 per cent and is expected to become 3 per cent in another 20 years. This is mainly due to low reproductive rates — in some countries as low as 1 when 2.1 is considered as equilibrating rate.

Europe will disappear from the world map unless migrants from Africa and Asia take it over. That is why Europe is being referred to as Eurobia and London as Londonistan.

The root cause of the issue is the attempt in Europe to nationalise families and privatise business. Old age issues/ health issues/ child care issues are all normal family activities that have been taken over by the state and the state is broke.

Funded security schemes are facing crisis since not enough numbers are getting in to labour force due to low reproductive rates and unfunded security system is in difficulty since taxes are not adequate due to low population growth.

Coupled with economic and demographic crisis is the crisis of civilisation in Europe. It has renounced the Church and has become secular. Church attendance has fallen significantly and churches have become tourist attractions rather than places of worship.

Most of the migrants, particularly those doing ‘brown colour work’ – like garbage removal, cleaning plates in restaurant, porter jobs, and grape-picking — are people from Mauritania/ Somalia/ Algeria etc and most are Muslims by faith. Due to a high degree of employment, there is resentment against migrants and this anger is turning into anger against Muslims. Added to this is the new front started by France in Mali to fight Islamic fundamentalists. Africa may become a new Vietnam for Europe.

Europe is sitting on a time bomb and any small spark could ignite it. Remember that all conflicts in the last 2000 years have started in Europe and only then became ‘world’ conflicts.

India has already given $10 billion or Rs 56,000 crore – nearly one per cent of GDP to help Europe. Not a single European paper or leader has thanked us openly. One can only hope that we need not give more of our GDP or become cannon fodder in anglo-saxon conflicts.

We can never be certain about our Government. It may involve us in the emerging conflicts since our foreign policy is generally subservient to the anglo-saxon interests and we muddle along instead of doing strategic thinking.

The sooner we evolve a strategy, the better, and it should be de-coupled from conflicts and focus on the eastern front.

(The writer is Professor of Finance at IIM, Bangalore.)